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Scenarios of the Russia–Ukraine War and Its Consequences for Iran’s National Security
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Parisa Habibisouraki   , Mohammad Bagher Makramipour , Khalil Gholami |
| Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University , parisa.habibi87@gmail.com |
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Abstract: (17 Views) |
Russia and Ukraine are two distinct nations belonging to the Slavic ethnic group, sharing deep historical and cultural roots. During the Cold War, Ukraine, together with Russia and Belarus, constituted three autonomous republics within the Soviet :union: that enjoyed a degree of relative independence in the international arena. At the same time, a form of intra-structural competition existed among these republics. Following the dissolution of the Soviet :union:, all three became among the first republics to gain independence from within the Soviet system and were swiftly recognized by the international community.
In the wake of the political and military tensions between Russia and Ukraine, which ultimately led to the outbreak of war in 2022, profound transformations emerged within the international order. This war has had both direct and indirect implications for the national security of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Given Iran’s cautious and multidimensional approach toward this conflict, the central question of this study is formulated as follows:
What are the implications of the Russia–Ukraine war for Iran’s national security?
Accordingly, this research adopts a futures studies approach and examines the issue through three analytical scenarios:
a) Victory of Ukraine over Russia,
b) Victory of Russia over Ukraine,
c) A protracted stalemate and war of attrition.
On this basis, the present study seeks to analyze the ongoing dynamics and key variables influencing the Russia–Ukraine conflict and to assess the various dimensions of its impact on Iran’s national security under each of the possible scenarios |
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| Keywords: Russia, Ukraine, War, National Security, Iran |
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Full-Text [PDF 685 kb]
(10 Downloads)
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Type of Study: Research |
Subject:
Special
Received: 2025/11/8 | Published: 2025/03/10
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